A Sudden Boom – What’s Happening?
On March 27, 2025, Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF) surprised traders with a 10% rally in its stock price. The momentum picked up towards the end of the trading session, and the stock closed 8.77% higher at ₹126.16. But what fueled this unexpected surge? Let’s break it down.
The Real Reason Behind the Stock Surge
The primary trigger for this sharp jump was the NSE Index semi-annual rebalancing. This process led to heavy buying in several stocks, including Bajaj Housing Finance.
From March 28, 2025, BHF stock officially joined the Nifty Next 50 Index (also known as Nifty Junior Index). This means more funds, particularly index funds and ETFs, had to buy this stock to align with the index composition.
According to Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research, the rebalancing led to an estimated $17 million (₹140 crore) worth of stock purchases, driving the price up.
Rebound After a Three-Day Losing Streak
Interestingly, before this rally, Bajaj Housing Finance was on a three-day losing streak, with the stock declining every single day of the week. This sudden jump acted as a much-needed relief for investors who had been watching their holdings dip.
A Look Back: The IPO Success Story
Bajaj Housing Finance had one of the best IPO listings in 2024. Its stock debuted at more than 100% premium over its issue price of ₹70, touching a high of ₹188 shortly after listing. However, the dream run didn’t last, and the stock gradually lost momentum.
What’s Next? The April Lock-in Expiry!
The next big event for Bajaj Housing Finance is coming in April 2025, when its lock-in period ends. This will free up 529 crore shares (64% of the total holding), allowing early investors to sell their shares in the open market.
Now, this doesn’t mean all these shares will be sold at once, but it does increase the potential supply, which could impact the stock price. Traders and long-term investors will be closely watching how this plays out.
Still 33% Below Its All-Time High
Even after the 9% rally, Bajaj Housing Finance is still trading 33% below its all-time high of ₹188. Over the last six months, the stock has given a negative return of 20%, but the last one month has shown a 12% bounce back.
What Should Traders Do Now?
Short-term traders: Those who entered for a quick profit should watch for resistance levels near ₹130-₹135.
Long-term investors: If you believe in the company’s growth, the lock-in expiry in April might provide a better entry point.
Risk-takers: If the stock sees a breakout above ₹135, it could trigger another round of bullish momentum.